Panama's vanishing ocean lifeline signals a broader climate crisis

By avagrace // 2025-09-11

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A critical ocean upwelling event in the Gulf of Panama has failed for the first time in at least 40 years. This seasonal process, which brings cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface, did not occur in early 2025. The immediate cause was a dramatic and unusual reduction in the northern trade winds.
Scientists from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute directly link this failure to a disruption in the global climate system.
The ecological and economic consequences are severe. The failure disrupts the entire marine food web, leading to reduced fish catches that threaten local livelihoods and increase the risk of coral bleaching due to higher water temperatures.
The event is a stark warning of the vulnerability of fundamental natural systems. It demonstrates how climate change can rapidly alter stable oceanic processes that humanity has long taken for granted.
The drought affecting the Panama Canal is also linked to this climate disruption. Reduced rainfall in the Gulf of Panama region, which feeds the canal's watershed, has caused water shortages, leading to shipping restrictions and global supply chain delays.

A vital ocean process that has sustained Panama's Pacific coast for generations has abruptly vanished, according to a new scientific report. For the first time in at least four decades, the seasonal upwelling event that cools the Gulf of Panama and nourishes its prolific marine life failed to occur in early 2025. Scientists from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) who documented the event, point to a dramatic reduction in wind patterns as the immediate cause, warning that this unprecedented failure is a direct symptom of a disrupted global climate system with profound implications for fisheries, ecosystems and coastal economies. In simple terms, upwelling is an oceanographic process where powerful, consistent winds push surface water away from the coast. This action forces cold, dense water from the deep ocean to rise up and take its place. This deep water is incredibly rich in nutrients, acting as a natural fertilizer for the marine food web. (Related: Panama canal crisis: U.S. and China vie for control as Panamanians plead for American support.) For as long as modern records exist, this process has been a clockwork feature of the Gulf of Panama. Each year, from January through April, the northern trade winds blow across the region, triggering this massive nutrient pump. The result is an explosion of microscopic plant life or phytoplankton, which forms the base of a food chain that supports everything from tiny fish to large commercial fisheries. The consistency of this cycle has been a cornerstone of both the local ecosystem and the human communities that depend on it. The cold water brought up from the depths also serves a critical secondary function: It acts as a natural air conditioner for the ocean. By keeping sea temperatures lower during the Central American dry season, which coincides with the hottest months, this upwelling has historically helped protect fragile coral reefs from the thermal stress that causes deadly bleaching. The STRI research team has meticulously monitored this cycle for forty years. Their data paints a picture of a reliable, predictable natural system – but that reliability shattered in 2025. Their instruments detected none of the usual signs; the water temperature did not drop, and the nutrient levels did not spike. The biological productivity that should have marked the season was conspicuously absent. In a study published Sept. 2 in the prestigious journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the scientists directly link this failure to a significant and unusual reduction in the strength of the trade winds. While a single anomalous year does not, by itself, prove a long-term trend, researchers argue it reveals how fragile these fundamental oceanic processes are. The concern is that what was once an immutable law of nature in this region is now shown to be vulnerable. The event in Panama is being viewed as a potential early data point confirming those predictions, showing how quickly a stable system can be pushed out of balance.

Implications for biodiversity and livelihoods

The immediate consequences of a lost upwelling season are severe. Without the nutrient influx, the entire marine food web is disrupted. Fewer phytoplankton means less food for small fish, which in turn means less food for larger fish, seabirds, and marine mammals. This leads to reduced fish catches, threatening the livelihoods of local fishing communities that have depended on this seasonal bounty for millennia. Furthermore, the loss of the cooling effect places immense stress on coral reefs. Coral bleaching occurs when water temperatures become too high for too long, causing corals to expel the symbiotic algae that give them color and energy. Without this cooling upwelling, the reefs of the Gulf of Panama are left exposed to the full force of the sun, increasing the risk of widespread bleaching and the collapse of the intricate ecosystems they support. The failure of the Panama upwelling is not an isolated incident but a stark warning. It underscores an urgent global need to strengthen ocean-climate observation networks, particularly in the tropics, which are often the first to feel the impacts of a changing planet. It is a clear signal that systems humanity has taken for granted are now in flux. While upwelling brings cooler, nutrient-rich water, it is a separate issue from the drought currently impacting the canal's water supply. According to Brighteon.AI's Enoch, the canal's operations depend on freshwater from rainfall in Gatun Lake, not on seawater from the Gulf. Therefore, such an upwelling would not alleviate the drought conditions causing the current low water levels. The primary hydrological challenge for the canal remains the lack of precipitation in its watershed. Read more stories like this at Climate.news. Watch and learn as the Health Ranger Mike Adams and guest Michael Yon talk Panama, Pakistan, India, Russia and sea routes for energy and trade. This video is from the Health Ranger Report channel on Brighteon.com.

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Implications for biodiversity and livelihoods

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