If the Israeli strike does not clearly convey to Trump that following meekly in the footsteps of a rogue state led by religious fundamentalists will damage his standing as a world leader, then nothing will
Netanyahu’s campaign to re-engineer the region has huge implications not just for Israel’s neighbours, but for all states near and far from the country’s borders: for the Gulf Cooperation Council states, and for those who have normalised relations with Israel by signing the Abraham Accords. In the short term, bombing Hamas meant bombing the negotiators. Had the attack succeeded, there would have been no one left in Hamas to negotiate with; no one with authority to tell any of the remaining guards in Gaza to release their prisoners. Not only that, but had the air strike succeeded, Operation Summit of Fire would have meant the end of all attempts to get the remaining hostages back alive. By bombing Hamas, Israel was bombing the negotiation process itself. Egyptian mediation has already ended, and it’s hard to see how Qatari mediation can continue. So even now, with the Hamas team alive, all negotiations to release the hostages in Gaza are probably over. The reality has been obvious to anyone who has followed the negotiations over the last two years. Netanyahu has thwarted seven separate attempts to get a deal, including deals his own negotiating team had initialled. But now, it’s obvious to everyone that he wants to end all negotiations and resolve Gaza by force alone. Troubling implications The only remaining avenue is for US envoy Steve Witkoff to take over the process and negotiate directly with Hamas himself, over Israel’s head. But that would mean his boss having to force Israel to stop its ground operation in Gaza City, which he has been reluctant to do. Besides, if Trump knew of Israel’s Doha operation in advance and green-lit it by failing to stop it, what value is there in any future guarantee he could give to Hamas that if they release all hostages, the war would stop and Israel would withdraw? This is the second time that Israel has used an active negotiation process as cover to launch a surprise attack. The first was its June assault on Iran, which began days before Iranian and US negotiators were due to meet in Oman about Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme. In this case, the Hamas negotiating committee was convening to discuss a ceasefire proposal Trump himself had written. It should be clear to all that Trump’s guarantees are worthless. But in the longer term, the implications of this failed air strike are much more troubling for Arab heads of state. Let us not delude ourselves. The second generation of Arab autocrats who have taken over the reins in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain hate Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood and Hezbollah even more than Netanyahu does. But the effect of Israel’s operation is much wider than this. It is to challenge them personally as leaders of their own airspace and their own countries. As in 1997, the failed strike on Hamas will immediately be a huge boost to the reputation of the movement, which is proscribed as a terrorist group in the UK and other countries.The options for them are closing their airspace to all Israeli flights, or for the UAE and Bahrain to pull out of, or suspend, their membership in the Abraham Accords
No longer will any local commentator be able to accuse the political leadership in Doha of living in luxury in five-star hotels while Gaza starves. They will now be seen to be on the front line of the struggle with Israel. It will also serve as an object lesson to the government in Lebanon, which is attempting to force Hezbollah to disarm nationally. Hezbollah’s argument that its disarming would lead to Lebanon being completely vulnerable to the whims of Israel only gathers force. Those pushing to enforce the US-Saudi plan to disarm Hezbollah were stopped temporarily by the wiser Lebanese army command, amid fears that fighting could break out if the government’s decisions were enforced. Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Jordan in particular will have to think about how far they can defy the opinions of their own people, and just how weak it makes them look if, as Israeli sources are now claiming, they secretly let Israeli fighters reach Doha. According to Ynet’s military correspondent, the attack in Qatar was “carried out in coordination with other countries”. The options for them are closing their airspace to all Israeli flights, or for the UAE and Bahrain to pull out of, or suspend their membership in, the Abraham Accords. The Emiratis have already said that Israel formally annexing the West Bank would be a “red line” for them. Netanyahu losing credibility Netanyahu has had a bad week. It started on Monday with the shooting attack in Jerusalem that killed six Israelis, and the deaths of four soldiers in Gaza. Hamas claimed responsibility for both operations. For someone who has declared more than once in the last two years that Israel is on the verge of victory, Netanyahu is quickly losing credibility at home. Hamas is fighting as ferociously today as it did on day one, and Israeli civilians and troops are dying in ever-increasing numbers. On Tuesday, Netanyahu failed to wipe out Hamas’s leadership, but instead could have wiped out all attempts to end the two-year conflict by negotiations. Hamas, on the other hand, has only gained in reputation. Trump is officially “unhappy” about the failed military operation and has attempted to distance himself from it, saying that the first he heard of it was from his own military chiefs. This, despite the fact that in its first briefings to correspondents, the White House was quick to say it knew about the strike. If the Israeli strike does not clearly convey to Trump that following meekly in the footsteps of a rogue state led by religious fundamentalists will damage his standing as a world leader, then nothing will. Trump is a man who feels personal slights keenly and remembers them. This one was delivered by his closest ally. But this strike, first and foremost, is a wake-up call to the region as a whole. The US security umbrella, for which they paid so handsomely on Trump’s last visit to the region, is worthless. The Abraham Accords are a myth too. No peace can be achieved by recognising Israel. Only through a robust regional security alliance to contain Israel - by Israel being forced to feel how small a land it really is, and to pay the price of its diplomatic and economic isolation - will Netanyahu’s hegemonic ambitions meet their true end. Read more at: MiddleEastEye.netTurkish FM Fidan condemns “Greater Israel” and Tel Aviv’s expansionism
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