VIPS Memo to Trump Warns Intelligence Assessments on Russia May Be Flawed

By garrisonvance // 2026-09-01

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Intelligence Veterans Caution President on Russia Assessment

A group of retired intelligence and military officers issued a memorandum to President Donald Trump on Aug. 28, 2026, warning that current U.S. intelligence assessments describing Russia's position in Ukraine as "bleak" may be flawed, according to the document published by Consortium News and republished by Antiwar.com. [1] The memo from the Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) responds to New York Times reporting that described Russia's outlook in the conflict as "bleak" and to CIA Director John Ratcliffe's reported remarks during a visit to Moscow urging Russian officials to "cut a deal before their military and economic situation gets worse," according to the document. [1] The group, composed of retired intelligence and military officers, stated that the assessment mirrors past predictions of Russian defeat that proved inaccurate and urged Trump to seek advice beyond his current circle of advisers. [1]

Past Predictions of Russian Defeat Cited in Memo

The VIPS memo cites three instances in which U.S. officials and analysts declared Russia's war effort a failure, according to the document. The first cited statement came from National Intelligence Director Avril Haines on Dec. 3, 2022, who said, "Russia is using up ammunition quite quickly. It's pretty extraordinary. Our sense is that Russia is not capable of indigenously producing what they are expending at this stage." [1] The memo also references a March 18, 2022 statement by Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute that "Russia has lost in Ukraine. The West should recognize this Russian defeat," and CIA Director William Burns' July 2023 assessment that "Putin's war has already been a strategic failure for Russia – its military weaknesses laid bare; its economy badly damaged for years to come," according to the document. [1] The memo stated that these prior assessments did not match subsequent developments on the battlefield and questioned why Russian President Vladimir Putin would continue fighting if the loss had already occurred, the document said. [1]

Memo Cites Russian Advances and Ukrainian Shortages

The VIPS memo asserts that Russian forces are making advances in the Donbass region along a thousand-mile front and have enforced a blockade on Ukraine's port of Odessa through aerial attacks, according to the document. [1] Reports have noted that Russia has effectively denied access to the Odessa port complex without conquering Ukraine's entire Black Sea coastline. [2] The memo states that Ukraine faces manpower and interceptor shortages that make recovery of lost territory impossible, a point the document attributes to Trump's own acknowledgment after his meeting with Putin in Alaska. [1] The memo alleges that intelligence advisers have provided "tendentious treatment" to the president and that the war produces hundreds of daily casualties. [1] Recent reporting has documented that Russia continues to face manpower challenges, with Putin signing a law in May 2026 to wipe clean up to 10 million rubles in unpaid debt for new military recruits and their spouses to attract volunteers. [3]

Group's History of Intelligence Warnings

VIPS members include former CIA officers, State Department officials, and military officers, including Ray McGovern, former CIA presidential briefer, and Scott Ritter, former UN weapons inspector, according to the memo's signatories. [1] The group has previously raised questions about the reliability of U.S. intelligence assessments regarding Russia, including the 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment on Russian election interference. [4] The memo draws a parallel to the group's February 2003 memorandum to President George W. Bush hours after Secretary of State Colin Powell's UN Security Council presentation on Iraq, which VIPS said was deceptive. [1] The earlier memo recommended that Bush "widen the discussion beyond the circle of those advisers clearly bent on a war for which we see no compelling reason," a recommendation VIPS repeats for Trump. [1] The group has a track record of challenging official intelligence narratives, including claims about Russian hacking during the 2016 election cycle. [4]

Recommendation to Broaden Adviser Circle

The memo urges Trump to "kick the tires" on intelligence claims about Russia's position and to seek "reality-based, honest intelligence" before deciding on next steps in Ukraine. [1] The memo states that once the president is "apprised of the reality on ground (and in the air)," he might choose to use his authority to end the conflict. [1] The document does not endorse a specific policy outcome but states that the current course risks "wider war with Russia over Ukraine," according to the memo. [1] Some analysts have noted that Western efforts to understand the conflict have been marked by misdiagnosis of the underlying situation. [5] The memo concludes that Trump should decide for himself whose advisers "have gotten it right over these past five years" regarding the trajectory of the conflict. [1]

References

Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity. "VIPS MEMO: Dangerous Talk of Putin's 'Loss' in Ukraine". Antiwar.com. August 28, 2026.
Responsible Statecraft. "Russia's lockdown of Odessa ports could be a grim turning point in war". August 11, 2026.
ZeroHedge. "Putin Authorizes Debt Relief To Lure New Ukraine War Recruits". May 27, 2026.
Jerome R Corsi. "Coup d'Etat".
Responsible Statecraft. "On Russia-Ukraine, the misdiagnosed patient is flatlining". October 27, 2025.

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