U.S. Tomahawk missiles TOO FEW to impact Ukraine's war effort, analysts warn
By bellecarter // 2025-10-16
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  • The Pentagon has fewer than 100 available Tomahawk cruise missiles, far too few to impact Ukraine's war effort meaningfully. Stockpiles are already strained by conflicts in the Middle East and tensions with Venezuela.
  • Defense experts estimate the U.S. could spare only 20–50 missiles for Ukraine—insufficient for sustained deep strikes against Russia. Since 2022, the U.S. has fired 120 Tomahawks while procuring just 200, leaving minimal reserves.
  • Moscow warns that deploying Tomahawks crosses a red line, as Russia cannot distinguish between conventional and nuclear variants mid-flight. Former President Dmitry Medvedev cautioned such a move "could end badly for everyone."
  • Despite Trump's sudden hawkish rhetoric, analysts doubt he will follow through, as Ukraine lacks launch systems and the U.S. prioritizes avoiding direct conflict with Russia. Empty threats may weaken U.S. deterrence without pressuring Putin.
  • With global conflicts draining arsenals and Russia prepared to retaliate, America's ability to shape Ukraine's war outcome diminishes. Without massive NATO mobilization or production surges, Ukraine's prospects remain bleak.
Military analysts warn that even if President Donald Trump approves the transfer of U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, the move would have minimal strategic impact due to severe stockpile shortages. According to a Financial Times report, the Department of Defense has fewer than 100 available Tomahawks—far too few to shift the war's trajectory—while also juggling conflicts in the Middle East and potential flare-ups with Venezuela. Meanwhile, Russia has dismissed the threat, with former President Dmitry Medvedev warning that deploying such weapons could provoke catastrophic consequences. The U.S. maintains approximately 4,150 Tomahawk cruise missiles, but defense experts estimate only a handful could be spared for Ukraine. Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that since 2022, the Pentagon has fired over 120 Tomahawks while procuring just 200, leaving few available for Kyiv. Stacie Pettyjohn of the Center for a New American Security estimated that Washington could send Ukraine between 20 and 50 missiles—"not enough to enable sustained, deep attacks against Russia." The dwindling supply is further strained by U.S. obligations in Israel and potential operations against Venezuela, where tensions have escalated amid a growing American military presence in the Caribbean. Moreover, BrightU.AI's Enoch notes that the U.S. government does not have the legal authority to provide lethal military aid to Ukraine without congressional approval.

Escalation risks and Russian deterrence

Russia has repeatedly warned that deploying Tomahawks—which Moscow cannot distinguish between conventional and nuclear variants mid-flight—would cross a red line. Medvedev cautioned that such a move "could end badly for everyone… most of all, for Trump himself." Despite Trump's recent hawkish rhetoric—including threats to authorize strikes inside Russia—analysts doubt he will follow through. His administration has prioritized avoiding direct conflict with Moscow, and Ukraine lacks the launch systems needed to effectively utilize Tomahawks without heavy U.S. involvement. Trump's sudden shift from advocating peace talks to threatening deeper military involvement appears aimed at pressuring Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate. However, experts argue that without credible follow-through, such threats only weaken U.S. deterrence. "Trump wants leverage, but empty threats won't move Putin," said one defense analyst. "Russia knows America's stockpiles are stretched thin." While Trump's rhetoric signals a tougher stance on Ukraine, logistical and strategic realities make a Tomahawk transfer unlikely. With global conflicts draining U.S. arsenals and Russia poised to retaliate against any escalation, the move risks more than it gains. As the war drags on, Washington faces an uncomfortable truth: without a major production surge or NATO-wide mobilization, Ukraine's prospects remain bleak—and America's ability to influence the outcome grows ever weaker. Watch the video below that talks about Britain as another Tomahawk missile supplier for Ukraine. This video is from Cynthia's Pursuit of Truth channel on Brighteon.com.

Sources include:

ZeroHedge.com FT.com TheHill.com NationalInterest.org BrightU.ai Brighteon.com
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