First alien contact likely to come from a civilization in crisis
By kevinhughes // 2025-12-29
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  • Humanity's first detection of extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) may come from a civilization in crisis—emitting an unusually powerful signal as it collapses or faces extinction. This "Eschatian Hypothesis" suggests we are more likely to detect a dying civilization's final transmission rather than a stable, advanced society.
  • Astronomical discoveries often begin with extreme outliers (e.g., the first exoplanets found orbiting pulsars, though most do not). Similarly, the first ETI signal detected will likely be an unusually strong, transient anomaly—possibly unintentional (like pollution or energy discharges from societal collapse).
  • The unexplained 1977 Wow! signal could have been a desperate transmission from a dying civilization. Alternatively, Earth itself may soon emit similar signals (e.g., runaway climate change) that extraterrestrials could interpret as signs of decline.
  • Instead of narrow searches for conventional technosignatures (like radio transmissions), broad anomaly-driven surveys (e.g., Vera Rubin Observatory) may be key to detecting fleeting, extreme signals.
  • First contact may not be with benevolent aliens but with a civilization's final message—highlighting existential risks. Stable, thriving ETI civilizations may remain hidden, as their signals could be too faint for current detection methods.
For decades, Hollywood has painted visions of first contact with extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) as either benevolent encounters with advanced beings or terrifying invasions by hostile aliens. But new research suggests that humanity's first glimpse of alien civilization may be far stranger—and far louder—than anything depicted in sci-fi films. According to a groundbreaking study by David Kipping, director of Columbia University's Cool Worlds Lab, our initial detection of ETI will likely come from a civilization in crisis—one emitting an extraordinarily powerful, anomalous signal as it teeters on the brink of collapse. BrightU.AI's Enoch explains that ETI, also known as alien intelligence or extraterrestrial cognition, refers to the hypothetical existence of intelligent life beyond Earth. The search for ETI has a rich history, with notable milestones such as the Turing Test, SETI, Wow! Signal and Drake Equation. Scientists employ various methods to detect ETI, including radio telescopes, optical telescopes, planetary protection and astrobiology.

Why first contact won't be peaceful

In "Eschatian Hypothesis," published in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Kipping said the first alien civilization we detect will be an outlier—an "extremely loud" society in a state of instability or even terminal decline. "The first confirmed detection of an extraterrestrial technological civilization is most likely to be an atypical example, one that is unusually 'loud' (i.e., producing an anomalously strong technosignature), and plausibly in a transitory, unstable, or even terminal phase," Kipping wrote. "Eschatian" is derived from eschatology, the theological study of the end times—fitting for a hypothesis suggesting that our first extraterrestrial signal may be a civilization's final cry before its demise. Kipping draws parallels with past astronomical discoveries, noting that initial detections are often outliers rather than representative examples. For instance, the first exoplanets discovered in the 1990s orbited pulsars—cosmic lighthouses whose precise timing made planetary detection possible. Yet, of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) catalog of over 6,000 exoplanets, fewer than 10 orbit pulsars. Similarly, about a third of stars visible to the naked eye are evolved giants, though they make up a tiny fraction of all stars. "If history is any guide, then perhaps the first signatures of extraterrestrial intelligence will too be highly atypical, 'loud' examples of their broader class," Kipping explains.

A civilization's death cry

One tantalizing possibility is that humanity has already detected such a signal—the infamous Wow! signal from 1977, a brief but powerful radio burst that has never been satisfactorily explained. Kipping speculates that this could have been a desperate transmission from a dying civilization. "Could the Wow! signal have been the very loud cry for help from a civilization approaching its own eschaton?" he muses in a YouTube video accompanying his research. Alternatively, the "loud" technosignatures could be unintentional—such as runaway pollution or energy discharges from a collapsing society. Some scientists suggest that Earth itself may soon emit similar signals due to climate change, which extraterrestrial observers could interpret as signs of decline. Rather than focusing narrowly on conventional technosignatures (like radio transmissions), Kipping advocates for broad, anomaly-driven surveys. "In practical terms, the 'Eschatian Hypothesis' suggests that wide-field, high-cadence surveys optimized for generic transients may offer our best chance of detecting such loud, short-lived civilizations," he writes. Upcoming observatories like the Vera Rubin Observatory and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey—which continuously monitor the sky—could be key to spotting fleeting, extreme signals before they vanish.

No friendly ETs? Implications for humanity

The "Eschatian Hypothesis" reshapes expectations of first contact. Instead of encountering a stable, advanced civilization, we may witness the death throes of a distant society—a sobering reminder of potential existential risks. Kipping's research also implies that peaceful, thriving civilizations may remain hidden, their signals too faint for current detection methods. "The history of astronomical discovery shows that many of the most detectable phenomena, especially detection firsts, are not typical members of their broader class, but rather rare, extreme cases with disproportionately large observational signatures," he concluded. For now, humanity's search for extraterrestrial intelligence continues—but with a new understanding that the first message from the stars may not be one of greeting, but of farewell. Watch this clip about enlightened contact with extraterrestrial intelligence in Washington and Hawaii. This video is from the High Hopes channel on Brighteon.com. Sources include: Phys.org UniverseToday.com IBTimes.com WIONews.com InterspaceSkyway.com BrightU.ai Brighteon.com
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