China's maritime dominance poses critical threat to U.S. national security
By isabelle // 2025-02-19
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  • China’s rapid shipbuilding outpaces the U.S., with over 1,700 ships annually compared to fewer than five.
  • China's dominance extends to maritime logistics, controlling over 7,000 commercial ships that could be repurposed for military use.
  • U.S. military logistics are vulnerable due to reliance on commercial ships and a shortage of qualified mariners.
  • China’s control over foreign port facilities and cargo data poses significant risks to U.S. operations and supply chains.
  • The U.S. must invest in shipbuilding, mariner training, and port modernization to counter China’s maritime dominance.
As the United States grapples with China’s rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, a lesser-known but equally pressing challenge looms: China’s dominance in maritime and logistics sectors. While the news of China’s DeepSeek AI matching U.S. capabilities has sparked concern, the true threat to American national security lies in Beijing’s unchecked progress in securing control over the world’s oceans and global supply chains. China’s shipbuilding industry, which now produces over 1,700 ships annually, far outpaces the U.S., which builds fewer than five ships per year. This disparity is not just a matter of numbers; it represents a significant strategic vulnerability for the United States, particularly in the context of potential conflicts. The U.S. military, which relies heavily on commercial vessels for logistics, faces a daunting reality: China’s vast fleet of commercial ships, numbering over 7,000, could be repurposed for military use, undermining U.S. logistics and supply lines.

A growing maritime power

The U.S. Trade Representative’s recent report shows how China’s dominance in shipbuilding and maritime logistics is not a result of fair competition but rather a strategic and state-sponsored effort to undermine global competitors. The report, initiated under Section 301 of the Trade Act, found that China’s shipbuilding industry has surged from less than 5% of global tonnage in 1999 to over 50% in 2023, largely due to government subsidies, forced technology transfers, and artificial suppression of labor costs. This dominance extends beyond shipbuilding to include control over foreign port facilities and a global cargo-data network that could be repurposed for military aims. The implications are profound: In a conflict, China’s control over these critical infrastructure components could severely disrupt U.S. military operations and supply chains, especially in the Pacific.

Why the U.S. must act now

The U.S. military’s reliance on commercial shipping for logistics is a double-edged sword. While commercial ships are essential for moving troops, supplies, and equipment, the current fleet of available vessels is woefully inadequate. U.S. military planners estimate that in a major conflict, the country would need access to over 13,000 qualified mariners—currently, the U.S. falls short by at least 13%. This deficit is further exacerbated by the aging and insufficient capacity of the U.S. government-owned fleet, with many ships needing replacement or modernization. The logistical challenges are compounded by the vast distances involved in a potential conflict with China. The Pacific is far larger and more challenging than the Atlantic, and the distance means that each ship takes longer to move the same volume of supplies, increasing the number of ships needed. In a crisis, this could leave U.S. forces vulnerable to sustained attacks and disruptions. Key figures in the Trump administration, such as Mike Waltz, the President’s national security advisor, recognize the urgency of addressing these vulnerabilities. Waltz, a former Green Beret and cosponsor of the SHIPS for America Act, advocates for a revitalized U.S. shipbuilding industry and a robust pipeline of trained merchant mariners. However, the task is monumental. Rebuilding the U.S. maritime industry will require significant investments and a long-term commitment, but it is essential for maintaining America’s global leadership and national security.

How can the U.S. counter China's maritime dominance?

The U.S. must take deliberate and urgent action to address the situation. Experts say that boosting the U.S. commercial and military shipbuilding industries is crucial for closing the gap with China. This includes funding new shipyards and modernizing existing facilities. Investing in a robust pipeline of qualified merchant mariners, particularly through service-obligated programs, is essential for ensuring the U.S. can mobilize effectively in times of crisis, while improving port facilities, enhancing supply chain resilience, and securing key international shipping routes are critical steps to strengthening U.S. logistical capabilities. The U.S. faces a formidable challenge, but it is not insurmountable. By prioritizing these investments and taking a proactive approach, the U.S. can preserve its competitive edge and maintain the ability to project power and protect vital interests around the globe. The time to act is now, before China’s maritime buildup permanently shifts the global balance of power. Sources for this article include: RealClearWire.com WSJ.com Reuters.com WPR.org USTR.gov
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