Green energy transition crumbles: America on brink of power crisis amid federal rollbacks and soaring AI demand
By willowt // 2025-06-18
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  • Federal policies halt offshore wind projects, undercutting states’ renewable goals.
  • OBBB bill slashes green energy subsidies, threatening project cancellations.
  • AI data centers triple power demand, pushing grids past capacity.
  • Grid battery fires spark safety concerns and cost inflation.
  • NERC warns of energy shortfalls in half of North America by 2030.
From New York to Texas, America’s decades-long push for a net zero energy grid faces collapse under soaring electricity demand, federal policy reversals and technological limitations. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) recently warned that over half of North America risks blackouts by 2030 due to retiring coal/gas plants and unreliable renewables. Simultaneously, President-Elect Donald Trump’s administration has halted offshore wind leasing nationwide, suspending offshore energy projects critical to state renewable targets. However, “renewables cannot provide enough power to support the AI revolution,” warns energy analyst Steve Goreham, as AI data centers alone could consume 20% of U.S. electricity by 2030. The U.S. now stands at a crossroads, with its grid buckling under conflicting pressures: state-level ambitions for 100% renewables and federal policies prioritizing reliability. The stakes are existential—rolling blackouts could soon plague regions once famed for uninterrupted power.

Federal rollbacks and offshore wind setbacks

The Biden administration’s offshore wind ambitions were dealt a decisive blow on January 20, when President Trump issued a presidential memo withdrawing all Outer Continental Shelf areas from offshore wind leasing. The action, framed as a “temporary withdrawal,” reverses years of offshore wind approvals and projects, a lifeline for 10 states targeting 100% renewable grids. “This bill eliminates the green energy crutch,” said a Trump adviser, referencing the new OBBB legislation eliminating wind/solar tax credits after late 2028. The bill, passed by the House in May, could strangle green energy’s reliance on federal handouts. Last year, renewables received $128 billion in subsidies, yet still supply only 23% of electricity. Critics of renewables argue market forces alone cannot sustain the transition. “Wind and solar demand perpetual federal lifelines—proof their supposed ‘cost leadership’ is a myth,” said Goreham.

AI boom exposes renewable energy’s limitations

The greatest threat to the green transition isn’t policy—it’s physics. Data centers now drive a 500% projected surge in U.S. power demand over the next decade, hitting 20% of overall consumption by 2030. “AI chips consume six times more power than legacy servers,” noted Microsoft’s recent infrastructure report. Texas alone faces a 157% electricity demand increase by 2031 due to AI-driven data storage hubs. States are scrambling to secure adequate supply. Virginia—home to 70% of U.S. data centers—is projected to triple consumption by 2040. Yet state-authored coal/gas closures, from 200 plants since 2010, have eroded grid reserves. Grid operators in 12 states paused gas/coal retirements after extreme weather outages in 2023. The solution, temporarily, is gas. Over 200 gas plants are under construction or planned—a reversal from earlier anti-fossil fuel pledges. “Natural gas is the only scalable backstop until nuclear can be restarted,” said NERC’s Jim Matheson.

Grid batteries fail as costs and safety concerns rise

Beyond policy and infrastructure gaps, battery storage faces steep obstacles. California’s 2023-2024 grid battery fires—sparking wildfire-like chaos—expose risks of lithium-dependent grids. Moss Landing’s billion-dollar battery facility suffered catastrophic failure in January, reigniting debates over safety. “These batteries are ticking time bombs,” said resident Steve Mayfield, whose home was evacuated after the San Diego Otay Mesa blaze. Costs are equally problematic. Experts estimate backing wind/solar with 24-hour storage multiplies project expenses tenfold. California’s electricity rates, already triple the national average, have surged 116% since 2008 as renewables expanded—a reality Magistrate Judge Howard Lloyd highlighted in 2022: “California’s green energy policies are a tax on the poor.”

The end of green transition hope?

NERC’s dire reliability report and market forces now underscore a harsh truth: the net zero dream is unworkable with current wind/solar tech. “States pushing 100% renewables are sleepwalking into blackouts,” warned Goreham. The incoming administration has signaled a policy shift, favoring gas/nuclear while mandating a review of renewable subsidies and permitting delays. “We can’t let eco-utopianism sacrifice reliability,” said Trump in January’s memo. Historically, NERC’s role since the 2005 Energy Policy Act has been to guard grid stability. But with bipartisan warnings over “reckless deregulation,” the path forward is murky.

The grid at a crossroads—a lesson in practical pragmatism

The U.S. power system faces its bleakest decade since the 1970s. From offshore wind suspensions to AI-driven demand spikes, the net zero experiment has hit “non-functional,” as NERC’s analyses prove. The era of renewables-first policies is ending not with a whimper, but a blackout. States and policymakers must now rethink energy pathways, balancing ecological concerns with hard realities: grid affordability requires gas and nuclear. The question now is whether America will learn the lesson from this “catastrophic” transition—or repeat it. Sources for this article include: WattsUpWithThat.com Whitehouse.gov Electric.coop
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