The CARTEL CONUNDRUM: U.S. military intervention in Mexico poses significant risks
By willowt // 2025-02-01
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  • The Trump administration is considering sending U.S. special operations forces into Mexico to combat drug cartels, sparking intense debate among policymakers and experts.
  • Experts warn that such intervention could escalate violence, destabilize both nations and exacerbate the very problems it aims to solve, as seen in Mexico's past military confrontations with cartels.
  • Mexico's history, including the "war on drugs" under President Calderon and the "Battle of Culiacan," highlights the cartels' ability to retaliate and adapt, making military intervention risky.
  • Experts recommend a multi-faceted strategy involving intelligence sharing, training Mexican forces and non-military approaches, such as addressing drug demand in the U.S. and promoting economic development in Mexico.
  • A measured approach combining increased military pressure with strengthened partnerships, domestic preparedness and systemic investments is seen as essential for effectively combating cartels and protecting national security.
As the Trump administration contemplates sending U.S. special operations forces into Mexico to combat drug cartels, the potential consequences of such a move have sparked intense debate among policymakers and experts. The idea, while appealing to some as a decisive action against a growing threat, comes with significant risks that could destabilize both nations and exacerbate the very problems it aims to solve.

A mixed bag of promises and perils

On Monday, President Donald Trump designated Mexican cartels as "foreign terrorist organizations," a move that has reignited discussions about military intervention. When asked by reporters about the possibility of deploying U.S. special operations personnel to Mexico, Trump responded cryptically, "Could happen. Stranger things have happened." The idea of military intervention is not new. During his first term, Trump floated similar proposals, but his team now appears to be taking the idea more seriously. Transition team members have been discussing the scope of potential operations, with some suggesting a more aggressive approach. Trump's new national security advisor, Mike Waltz, a former Green Beret, and his "border czar," Tom Homan, have both advocated for the use of special operations forces to target cartels. However, experts warn that such a move could have disastrous consequences. "I don't think that the American people have the stomach for what's going to happen if we start messing around down there," said a senior active-duty special operator who spoke to Business Insider on condition of anonymity. "Just throwing any military mechanism at this problem for the purpose of just killing cartel leaders is not going to change anything. It's only going to make things worse."

Lessons from the past

The risks of military intervention are not merely hypothetical. Mexico's history is rife with examples of how cartels have retaliated against perceived threats. In 2006, then-President Felipe Calderon declared a "war on drugs," deploying military forces against cartels. The result was a sharp escalation in violence, with cartels targeting law enforcement, military personnel and government officials. Public officials were assassinated in broad daylight, and entire police forces resigned in fear. A more recent example is the "Battle of Culiacan" in 2019, where the Sinaloa Cartel launched widespread attacks after the arrest of Ovidio Guzman Lopez, the son of drug lord Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzman. The cartel's campaign of terror overwhelmed Mexican authorities, leading to the release of Guzman. These incidents highlight the cartels' operational sophistication and their ability to adapt and retaliate. If U.S. forces were to intervene, the cartels could use their extensive networks within the United States to launch retaliatory strikes, targeting political figures, law enforcement and even military personnel.

A multi-faceted approach: The need for collaboration and preparedness

While direct military intervention carries significant risks, experts agree that a multi-faceted approach is necessary. "A military approach by itself will not be sufficient. It will not solve the problem," said Doug Livermore, vice president of the Special Operations Association of America and a senior Green Beret officer in the National Guard. Instead, Livermore and other experts recommend a broader strategy involving intelligence sharing, training of Mexican forces and non-military approaches. Bolstering Mexico's internal defenses could be a worthwhile endeavor, but it must be done in close collaboration with the Mexican government to avoid exacerbating the violence. Domestically, the United States must prepare for potential retaliation. Enhanced interagency coordination between the Drug Enforcement Agency, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Homeland Security is crucial to safeguarding likely targets and strengthening the country's ability to identify and neutralize cartel threats. Addressing the root causes of the cartel problem is equally important. Reducing the demand for illicit drugs in the United States through investment in addiction treatment and public education programs can undermine a significant source of cartel revenue. On the supply side, supporting economic development in Mexico can create alternative opportunities for individuals who might otherwise be drawn into illicit activities.

A strategic and informed path forward

Deploying U.S. special operations forces against Mexican cartels is a complex and risky proposition. While the opioid crisis and the threat posed by cartels demand urgent action, a measured and strategic approach is essential. History has shown that underestimating the adaptability and resilience of these violent transnational criminal groups can have dire consequences. By integrating increased military pressure with strengthened partnerships, domestic preparedness and systemic investments, the United States can ensure a more sustainable and effective effort to combat the cartels and protect national security. Sources include: AmericanThinker.com Yahoo.com AtlanticCouncil.org
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