New US sanctions on Russia take effect: Will they lead to de-escalation or further isolation?
By ljdevon // 2025-03-01
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The Trump Administration's newest sanctions are targeted toward Russia’s oil industry, focusing primarily on major producers and a so-called “shadow fleet." While framed as a necessary response to the Ukraine conflict, these measures risk further destabilizing global energy markets and exacerbating tensions between the US and Russia. However, these sanctions seem to be more precise, and more readily enforceable, and could more quickly achieve their stated goals of weakening Moscow’s resolve and de-escalating war in Ukraine. • The U.S. Treasury Department has prohibited American companies from providing petroleum services to Russia, targeting major producers like Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz. • Over 180 vessels allegedly used to transport Russian oil, dubbed a “shadow fleet,” have also been sanctioned. • The sanctions, imposed in conjunction with the UK, aim to curb Russia’s energy revenues but have been dismissed by Moscow as “illegal” and ineffective. • The resolute measures could backfire, harming global energy markets and further isolating the US from potential diplomatic solutions.

Will the latest sanctions bring Russia and Ukraine closer to a peace deal?

The latest round of sanctions, which took effect on Thursday, marks yet another escalation in the economic war against Russia. By targeting the country’s oil industry, the U.S. aims to cripple one of Moscow’s primary sources of revenue. However, the move has been met with skepticism from experts who argue that such broad measures are unlikely to achieve their intended goals. “The United States is taking sweeping action against Russia’s key source of revenue,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen declared in a statement. This “sweeping action” could be the precise action needed to avoid collateral damage. Ordinary Americans have endured the backlash from sanctions against Russia during the Biden years. Biden himself admitted that the sanctions could lead to higher gas prices. Will these sanction continue the same trend? Russia has dismissed the restrictions as “illegal” and ineffective. President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that the sanctions have only strengthened Russia’s domestic industries, forcing the country to become more self-reliant. “No blackmail or attempts from outside to hinder us will ever yield results,” Putin said in December.

Historical context: A cycle of failed sanctions

The US and its allies have imposed tens of thousands of sanctions on Russia since 2014, when a Western-backed coup in Ukraine led to Crimea’s reunification with Russia and sparked conflict in the Donbass region. The number of measures skyrocketed after Russia launched its special military operation in Ukraine in February 2022. Despite these efforts, Russia has managed to adapt and even thrive under the pressure. According to a Bloomberg report, EU nations bought a record quantity of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) last year, underscoring the limitations of Western sanctions. The latest measures, which target Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, along with their subsidiaries and service providers, are unlikely to break this pattern. Gazprom Neft, a subsidiary of the state-owned Gazprom energy giant, was the first company to start oil production on the Russian Arctic shelf. Surgutneftegaz, founded in 1993, remains one of Russia’s top 100 companies by net income. One of the more controversial aspects of the new sanctions is the targeting of over 180 vessels allegedly used to transport Russian oil. The US has labeled these ships as part of a “shadow fleet,” accusing them of circumventing Western restrictions. However, this move raises questions about the effectiveness of such measures. By targeting these vessels, the U.S. risks further complicating global shipping routes and driving up costs for businesses worldwide. Moreover, the sanctions could push Russia to deepen its ties with other nations, such as China and India, which have continued to buy Russian oil despite Western pressure.

A path forward: using leverage to achieve a desirable outcome

As the Trump administration doubles down on its sanctions strategy, voices within the US and abroad are calling for a more measured approach. President Donald Trump recently suggested that Washington could lift the sanctions “at some point” during Ukraine peace negotiations. The difference: Trump is using the sanctions as leverage, whereas Biden had no intention of negotiating or ever trying to end the war. The new U.S. administration has also hinted that Western nations may need to reconsider their approach to sanctions in order to find an “enduring, sustainable” solution to the Ukraine conflict. This shift in tone reflects growing recognition that economic warfare alone is unlikely to achieve lasting peace. History has shown that broad, indiscriminate sanctions often fail to achieve their intended goals, instead harming ordinary citizens and pushing targeted nations to adapt and innovate. As the world teeters on the brink of a new Cold War, it is imperative that the US and its allies pursue diplomacy over escalation, seeking solutions that prioritize peace and stability over punitive measures. Using leverage against Russia in a way that inspires action toward a peace deal may be the solution that America, Ukraine, Europe, and Russia need. Sources include: RT.com RT.com Brookings.edu
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